Fold equity is the value of winning when your opponent folds. For a zero-equity bluff risking 50 to win a 100-chip pot, the break-even fold rate is 50/(100+50), or one third.
Heads-up bluff calculator
How risk and reward set the threshold
If a pure bluff works, you gain the pot that existed before your bet. Your own bet is returned as part of collecting the pot, so it is not extra profit. If called with no chance of winning, you lose your bet.
At a 40% fold rate, betting 50 into 100 has expected result 0.40 × 100 − 0.60 × 50 = +10 chips. At 20% folds it is 20 − 40 = −20 chips. The same bet can change sign when the assumed fold rate changes.
Allowing for a hand that can win when called
The full model is F × P + (1 − F) × [e × (P + 2B) − B]. Here F is fold probability and e is your chance of winning against the calling hand, with both players contributing B. This can represent an all-in semi-bluff under the stated assumptions.
Do not enter equity against the opponent’s entire starting range if only its stronger hands call. The calling range and the folding range are different subsets.
What the number cannot decide
An estimate of opponent behaviour can be wrong. Multiway folds cannot be handled by entering one opponent’s fold percentage, and future turn or river bets break the simple model. A positive modelled result is a sensitivity calculation, not advice to bluff every similar board.
Related tools and practice
- Folding your own hand versus making an opponent fold
- Showdown equity for specific cards
- The caller’s price
Use the play-chip training table to review standard six-handed Hold'em decisions. The trainer does not play short deck.
Expected-value equation derived directly from the fold and call outcomes. Checked at 0% and 100% fold frequencies and at the zero-equity break-even point. AI-assisted explanations and calculations reviewed 30 October 2026. No result guarantees a profitable decision.